Keine Angst vor dem chinesischen Wicht

Die New York Times versucht mit einigen Zahlen die angesichts der möglichen chinesischen Unocal-Übernahme ausgebrochene Angst der Amerikaner vor dem Riesenreich zu dämpfen:
There is talk of Chinese dominance over the world economy, and, from what I can gather, a general fear that soon we will be in peonage to the Chinese. It all reminds me a lot of how the news media and the Central Intelligence Agency went berserk after the launching of Sputnik in 1957, and it was forecast that the Soviet Union would soon be the world's technological and economic hegemon. That talk was based on a number of faulty assumptions and a good deal of hysteria. Obviously, it did not happen. ... Consider the most optimistic C.I.A. data about China in 2004. It says China has a purchasing power parity G.D.P. of (very) approximately $8 trillion, compared with roughly $12 trillion for the United States. Again, this is for a nation with nearly five times our population. Even when using this most astoundingly optimistic estimate - I would almost say a preposterous estimate - China has a per capita G.D.P. of about $6,000, or about 15 percent of America's and well below that of any nation in Western Europe, or of Japan, Israel, Taiwan and many other countries. In other words, the United States is vastly richer than China by any measure. This is not to boast, but it's also not to be afraid of imminent world-pauper status. It is true that China is industrializing at a fantastic pace. It is estimated that China has been growing at roughly 9 to 10 percent annually for several years, while the United States has been growing about 3 percent annually. Torrid growth, however, never goes on forever, in companies or in nations. (At least it never has so far.) But suppose that these trends continued for 25 more years. Chinese per capita G.D.P. would be about $65,000 in 2040, and American per capita G.D.P. would be about $84,000. ... Suppose that China becomes a larger economic power than the United States. Suppose, in our great-great-grandchildren's day, that the average Chinese citizen is about as rich as the average American. How would it hurt us? Why would we be worse off? If the Chinese were richer, they could buy more from us and employ more of our workers. They could buy more of our stocks. They could tour our beautiful nation more.
Ein bisschen naiv die Sichtweise des Kolumnisten, aber auch ein bisschen was Wahres dran.


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